Análise de regressão binominal negativa na difusão das arboviroses na Bahia entre os anos de 2016-2019

Abstract

Between 2016 and 2019, Bahia had about 270,172 incident cases of arboviruses; 58.57% were dengue, 25.36% were chikungunya, and 16.07% were zika. One hundred thirty-six municipalities were affected with simultaneous occurrences, and 7 had continuous cases over those four years (2016 to 2019). Related to the context and multiple events over time, within an endemic scope, the pressing issue is identifying the possible factors that influence arboviral cases, confirmed and suspected, in Bahia. The hardship in contextualizing a general scenario, with plenty possibility of delimitation, was identified as a priority problem and served as a parameter to locate the research in the agenda of initiatives that seek to analyze the susceptibility of the occurrence of arboviruses in a given location. This research aims to identify ecological factors associated with confirmed and suspected cases of dengue, chikungunya, and zika through statistical models of negative binomial regression that circle back from the annual frequency of cases by municipalities in Bahia municipalities in the period from 2016 to 2019. Two Analytical hypotheses were considered: the first indicates that ecological factors impact the occurrence of cases, and the second hypothesis assumes that there is mutual influence between the studied arboviruses. Three case scenarios were outlined: the suspected cases scenario, the confirmed cases scenario, and the persistent cases occurrences scenario, the latter related to the context of simultaneous circulation. The survey indicated that the main influencing factors are linked to trade, migration, transport, land use, and socioeconomic aspects.